Russia lost territory in Ukraine for a second month running, US research group finds

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy put the Russian toll in October at more than 54,000 killed or seriously wounded, the highest since the February 2022 invasion.

Russia lost territory in Ukraine for a second straight month in October 2026, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based research group.

The institute said those casualty and territorial losses matched its assessment that Russian forces had lost the initiative and offensive capabilities across much of the front line, though not near Dobropillya. Ukrainian forces, it said, had taken the initiative in the Kupyansk, Lyman and Oleksandrivka directions and were contesting it in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian gains in October were confined to Sumy and Zaporizhia oblasts, while Russian forces lost ground in all other sectors, including Donetsk Oblast, their priority objective. According to Le Grand Continent, a French journal, about 300 square kilometres changed hands in total during the month, counting gains and losses together, along a front of more than 1,000 km. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said on 23 October that Ukrainian soldiers had liberated more territory since the beginning of autumn than the Russians had managed to capture.

Russian state news agency RIA reported that the Defence Ministry released footage in October of its forces taking Alisovka in Kharkiv region and Barylivka in Sumy region. It said assault groups of the 1431st motorized rifle regiment of the 11th army corps had liberated Alisovka. Zelenskyy put the October toll of Russian soldiers killed or seriously wounded at more than 54,000, the highest since the February 2022 invasion began. European government evaluations point in the same direction, he said. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 2 November that Russian forces had scaled back offensive actions in the Kramatorsk, Oleksandrivka and Prydniprovske sectors, with no assaults recorded there over the previous day.

Data from the Ukrainian General Staff indicates Russian forces averaged roughly 30 attacks a day on the Pokrovsk direction through 1 November. It was the sector with the highest fighting intensity since at least 1 August. Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi, an offensive in the Lyman direction, defeated Russia's attempt to close the northern half of a planned encirclement of the Fortress Belt, Ukraine's fortified defensive line, according to Al Jazeera and the institute.