Russia lost ground in October; Kyiv counts record 54,400 casualties

Russian forces gave up a net 27.29 square kilometres for the second month running, even in Donetsk where the push is strongest.

Russia paid more for less land in October. Its forces lost a net 27.29 square kilometres in Ukraine that month, while casualty figures hit a record.

The institute's figures show Russia seized 139.85 square kilometres but lost 167.14 in October, making it the second month in a row of net losses. Russia gained ground only in Sumy and Zaporizhia regions, and lost it everywhere else, including Donetsk, its main target. Le Grand Continent reports that Russia lost about 60 square kilometres east of Lyman, and lost 41.6 square kilometres in the Donetsk region, where Russia concentrates its main offensive effort. About 300 square kilometres changed hands in all, along a front of more than 1,000 kilometres.

The Ukrainian General Staff counted 54,400 Russian soldiers killed or seriously wounded in October, the fourth month in a row above 40,000. President Zelenskyy put the toll at more than 54,000, the highest human toll since the February 2022 invasion, and said European government evaluations point the same way. "Our soldiers have liberated more territory since the beginning of autumn than the Russians have managed to capture," he said on October 23.

The US-based institute judges that Russia has lost the initiative in much of the war, though it keeps it near Dobropillya. It says Ukrainian forces have taken the initiative in the Kupyansk, Lyman and Oleksandrivka directions, and are contesting it in western Zaporizhia. Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi broke Russia's attempt to build the northern pincer of a planned wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt. The General Staff reported on November 2 that Russian assaults had stopped in the Kramatorsk, Oleksandrivka and Prydniprovske sectors over the past day.