Opinion
The veto pen did not change hands. Fund Europe's defence.
86 senators voted for sanctions on Russia and one waiver undid them. The Council should stop budgeting around American promises and borrow together to build European defence.
Congress changed hands. The veto pen did not. Democrats won a Senate majority this week, a seat count in the House is still running, and within hours the market told the truth about our defence: by 10:00 CET on 4 November, BAE Systems fell 5.2 percent, Thales 4.5 percent, Rheinmetall 3.2 percent. Traders know something we stop pretending away. Our security is still priced in an American signature. Voters punished the president for prices and corruption, and his approval sat at 38 percent, yet the first thing he showed his new Congress was a red veto cap. That is the habit we plan around, and it is the habit we must break.
The record is not a rumour, it is a ledger, and it tells you who holds the pen. In August 2026 the Senate passed the Lindsey Graham Act with 86 votes, a near-unanimous voice for pressure on Russia. Weeks later, on 16 October, President Trump waived those sanctions, and the Treasury had just lifted restrictions on Russian diesel. So 86 senators voted, and one pen undid them. The Council on Foreign Relations' James M. Lindsay reads the same pattern: most lawmakers hesitate to corner a president of their own party. And Congress cannot compel him to change his diplomacy with Russia however much it may bristle at it. That is not shared power, it is a permission slip we do not sign and cannot revoke. Europe can write its own security instead, with factories, munitions lines and orders of our own.
Money fares no better than law. Earlier in 2026 the Pentagon sat on $400 million in Ukraine assistance for months, after Congress had authorized it. The money existed on paper, and our soldiers and factories waited for it. Earmarked funds are intent, not commitment, as the European Council on Foreign Relations warns. And the direction of travel is written down already: the Pentagon's review of forces in Europe, due by December, leans towards handing conventional defence back to us, whatever Congress thinks of it. The man behind the shift, United States undersecretary of war for policy Elbridge Colby, calls it NATO 3.0, and Congress has only set a troop floor the president contests.
A Democratic Congress will attach Ukraine aid to must-pass bills and dare the president to veto them, as Brookings' Daniel Hamilton expects, and representatives like Mike Levin promise every oversight tool to get Ukraine its money. Good luck to the effort, but read the ledger again. ECFR's Nevada Joan Lee makes the deeper point: a Congress can write aid into law, but the president might not spend it. And Trump, facing this Congress, posted a red veto cap.
The habit sits in one office, and the October waiver and the delayed $400 million showed it plainly. The European Council should stop budgeting around American promises and start borrowing for European ones: a joint defence investment programme at the scale the Draghi report set, common debt for munitions, weapons production and common procurement, decided by majority so no single veto holds Europe hostage. Even Saab shares fell on that day, and European orders can turn that fear into work. A young engineer starting in the sector this year should build for a union that signs its own cheques, not one that waits on a waiver. Trump told CBS News he did not want to spend his final two years rejecting Democratic legislation. Put the borrowing on the table and vote.